NAIROBI, Kenya May 14 – Kenyans are anxiously awaiting the latest fuel price review by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), expected Thursday evening, amid continued volatility in global oil markets triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The monthly review, which determines the retail prices of super petrol, diesel and kerosene, comes at a time when the country is still grappling with the effects of the sharp fuel price hikes announced in April.
Under the current pricing cycle ending May 14, pump prices in Nairobi rose above Sh206 per litre for both petrol and diesel after EPRA implemented one of the steepest increases in recent years.
Kenya’s fuel market has been under pressure following the worsening conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States, which has severely disrupted global oil supply chains.
The crisis intensified after renewed attacks on oil infrastructure in the Gulf region and the continued disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a key global oil transit route that handles nearly a fifth of the world’s crude supply.
Global energy agencies now warn that oil inventories are falling at record pace, with Brent crude prices climbing sharply in recent weeks amid fears of prolonged supply shortages.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) this week warned that the Iran war could push global oil supply below demand throughout 2026, increasing the risk of further price spikes.
As a net importer of petroleum products, Kenya remains highly exposed to international market shocks.
Industry data shows that Kenya previously sourced a significant portion of its diesel and gasoline imports from the Gulf region, but supply disruptions linked to the Hormuz crisis have forced importers to seek alternative and more expensive sources from markets such as Nigeria and the United States.
In April, EPRA attributed the sharp increase in local pump prices to rising landed costs of imported fuel products. Diesel import costs reportedly rose by as much as 68 percent, while petrol increased by over 40 percent within a month.
The government responded by lowering Value Added Tax on petroleum products from 16 percent to 13 percent and tapping the Petroleum Development Levy to cushion consumers from the full impact of the increases.
The higher fuel prices have already triggered a ripple effect across the economy, with matatu fares, food prices and transport costs increasing in several towns.
Business groups and consumer lobby organizations have warned that another upward adjustment could worsen inflationary pressures and raise the cost of essential goods.
Analysts estimate that Kenya has already incurred billions of shillings in additional fuel costs since the Middle East crisis escalated earlier this year.
The review expected Thursday evening will indicate whether the government will maintain subsidies to stabilize prices or allow consumers to absorb more of the rising global costs.
Fuel prices announced by EPRA typically take effect at midnight and remain in force until the 14th of the following month.