NAIROBI, Kenya May 14 – A new TIFA opinion poll indicates a significant reshaping of Kenya’s political landscape, with both the ruling and major opposition parties recording sharp declines in support since the 2022 General Election.
The survey shows that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has dropped from 32% in August 2022 to 18% in May 2026, while the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has fallen even further, from 38% to 14% over the same period.
At the same time, emerging and smaller parties appear to be gaining traction, with the Democratic Change Party (DCP) rising from 9% in September 2025 to 16% in May 2026. The Jubilee Party also recorded an increase, climbing from 5% to 11%.
The poll highlights DCP as one of the fastest-growing political formations in the current cycle, suggesting a gradual shift in voter sentiment toward alternative political options outside the dominant coalitions.
Analysts say the growth reflects increasing voter fatigue with established political players and a search for new leadership narratives ahead of the next election cycle.
Beyond party-specific gains and losses, the findings point to a wider political realignment across the country.
Support for Wiper has increased from 4% to 9%, while other smaller formations also show modest gains. However, the most notable trend is the sharp decline in support for both ODM and UDA, which have traditionally dominated Kenya’s political scene.
The poll also indicates a significant reduction in undecided voters, which fell from 43% in September 2025 to 23% in May 2026. This suggests a gradual consolidation of voter preferences as the country moves closer to the next general election cycle.
Political observers say the shifting numbers could have major implications for coalition-building and campaign strategies ahead of the 2027 General Election.
If current trends persist, emerging parties like DCP could play a more influential role in shaping alliances and determining electoral outcomes, particularly in closely contested regions.
However, analysts caution that political dynamics in Kenya remain fluid, and voter sentiment could continue to shift significantly in the coming months.
As the race toward 2027 gathers pace, the latest TIFA poll underscores a competitive and increasingly unpredictable political environment.