NAIROBI, Kenya, Jul 16 – Senior leaders in the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) on Thursday evening began conceding defeat in the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election as provisional results handed Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) candidate Sammy Kamau Waweru a commanding lead.
Waweru’s unassailable lead as soon as tallying got underway appeared to project a major political setback for President William Ruto’s party in the Mt. Kenya region.
With provisional results from 107 of the constituency’s 144 polling stations tallied by 8 pm, Waweru had amassed 25,921 votes against 4,018 for UDA candidate Samuel Muchina Nyagah, leaving the ruling party facing an increasingly improbable comeback.
The outcome comes despite an intensive weeks-long UDA campaign that saw senior government officials and party heavyweights criss-cross the constituency in support of Muchina.
Among the first senior UDA figures to publicly acknowledge the apparent loss was Digital Strategist Dennis Itumbi, who congratulated the DCP candidate while praising both campaigns.
“Congratulations Ngotho. Well fought. Well won. Serve Ol Kalou well.”
“Good campaign Muchina Samuel Nyagah—we had a great race. We did what we could. We lost today. There is tomorrow. Tuonane in the next democratic process.”
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki also appeared to signal acceptance of the outcome in a brief social media post referencing UDA’s earlier victory in the Mbeere North by-election.
“Mbeere North: 1. Ol Kalou: 1. Final Match 10 Aug’ 2027.”
The message was widely interpreted as acknowledging the Ol Kalou result while shifting focus to the next General Election.
Kapseret MP Oscar Sudi, another senior UDA campaigner in the constituency, congratulated Waweru and urged residents to move forward after the closely watched contest.
“I want to congratulate Hon. Sammy Kamau Waweru for winning the Ol Kalou by-election. Thumbs up also to Samuel Muchinah Nyagah for a well-fought race. I was on the ground, and I respect the decision made by the people of Ol Kalou.”
He added that Mt. Kenya remained part of President William Ruto’s administration despite the outcome.
Opposition leaders quickly seized on the provisional results, portraying them as an early indication of shifting political fortunes ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Siaya Governor James Orengo described the apparent victory as evidence that the country’s political landscape was changing.
“DCP’s Sammy Douglas Waweru’s decisive win in Ol Kalou represents a triumph for ordinary citizens. It is a clear signal that the ground has shifted, and President Ruto should prepare for a single term. From Mt. Kenya to the Lake region, the people have spoken—it is WAN-TAM.”
Former Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mithika Linturi termed the result a rejection of intimidation and vote-buying allegations that dominated the campaign.
“This triumph stands as a powerful testament to the resilience and determination of the people of Mount Kenya, who have chosen their own leader despite sustained attempts at intimidation, bribery and thuggery.”
Jubilee Party Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni summed up the mood among opposition supporters with a brief declaration:
“The Mountain has spoken.”
Earlier in the day, DCP Deputy Party Leader Cleophas Malala had predicted victory, describing the by-election as the “funeral” of UDA in the Mt. Kenya region.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) said voter turnout reached 50.8 percent by the close of polling and expressed confidence the exercise would conclude peacefully.
IEBC Commissioner Hassan Noor Hassan said the winner was expected to be declared around midnight.
“The most important thing is to have this exercise concluded in a peaceful manner. We expect that around midnight we will be able to tell Kenyans who the elected Member of Parliament is. The wishes of the people will be respected. IEBC is an impartial arbiter.”
The Ol Kalou by-election, occasioned by the death of former MP David Kiaraho, has been widely viewed as the first major electoral test in the Mt. Kenya region since former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s fallout with President William Ruto.
Although the official declaration was still pending, the scale of Waweru’s lead had already triggered concession messages from senior UDA figures, underscoring the political significance of a contest likely to shape alliances ahead of the 2027 General Election.