June 17 \u2013 President Trump\u2019s comments on the Israel-Iran conflict have veered from full throated support for Israel\u2019s strikes to strongly distancing himself from them, and back again.<\/p>\n
His ambiguity has added to the sense of uncertainty as the fighting itself escalates \u2013 as has his departure from the G7 in Canada. He simply said he had \u201cbig stuff\u201d to return to in Washington.<\/p>\n
The White House said his departure was to do with \u201cwhat\u2019s going on in the Middle East\u201d, while later on Truth Social he said it had \u201cnothing to do with a Cease Fire\u201d.<\/p>\n
Earlier, the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attacks were \u201cfully coordinated\u201d with the US.<\/p>\n
So what factors are weighing on Trump and, crucially, what are his options now.<\/p>\n
As Israeli missiles hit Tehran on Thursday, Trump threatened Iran\u2019s leaders with \u201ceven more brutal\u201d attacks from his Israeli ally armed with American bombs.<\/p>\n
We know Trump\u2019s ultimate objective. He says, like Netanyahu, that Iran can\u2019t have a nuclear bomb. Crucially, he has said his preferred option (unlike Netanyahu) is via a deal between the US and Iran (this route also reflects his self-described image as a world-class dealmaker).<\/p>\n
But he has equivocated over how to get there, sometimes leaning into the threat of force, other times pushing the diplomacy. Last week he even said in the same breath that an Israeli attack on Iran would help a deal or it would \u201cblow it\u201d.<\/p>\n
Where is Israel\u2019s operation heading?<\/a><\/p>\n His unpredictability is sometimes portrayed by his supporters after the fact as strategic \u2013 the so-called \u201cmadman\u201d theory of foreign relations. This theory is one that has previously been used to describe Trump\u2019s negotiating tactics and suggests that deliberate uncertainty or unpredictability about escalation works to coerce adversaries (or even allies in Trump\u2019s case) into complying. It was famously attributed to some of the Cold War practices of President Richard Nixon.<\/p>\n Some of Trump\u2019s advisers and supporters back the \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d side of the madman theory when it comes to his approach to Iran. They think the threats will in the end prevail because, they argue, Iran is not serious about negotiating (even though in 2015 the country signed an Obama-led nuclear deal that Trump later pulled out of).<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n Smoke rises from explosion at state broadcasting building in Tehran<\/p>\n Netanyahu has applied constant pressure on Trump to go down the military not diplomatic path, and the US president \u2013 despite his oft-stated desire to win the Nobel Peace Prize \u2013 may in the end see a need to deliver on his more belligerent threats to Tehran\u2019s leadership<\/p>\n Israel may also push harder behind the scenes for American involvement to, as it sees it, to finish the job. The US has bunker buster bombs Israel believes can destroy Iran\u2019s underground uranium enrichment site at Fordow.<\/p>\n As the fighting escalates, so does the pressure on Trump from the hawkish camp of Republicans in Congress who have long called for regime change in Iran.<\/p>\n Trump will also see the argument that it could force the Iranians into negotiating with him with a now weaker hand. But the fact remains that the Iranians already were at that table, as a sixth round of talks due with Trump\u2019s envoy Steve Witkoff had been planned in Oman on Sunday.<\/p>\n The talks are now abandoned.<\/p>\n So far, Trump has reiterated that the US is not involved in Israel\u2019s attacks.<\/p>\n Escalation comes with significant and potentially legacy-defining risks for Trump. American naval destroyers and ground based missile batteries are already helping in Israel\u2019s defence against the Iranian retaliation.<\/p>\n Some of Trump\u2019s advisers at the National Security Council are likely to be cautioning against him doing anything that could add to the intensity of Israel\u2019s attacks on Iran in the immediate days, especially with some Iranian missiles breaching Israeli-US defences to deadly effect.<\/p>\n Netanyahu is now arguing that targeting Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would end, not escalate, the conflict.<\/p>\n But an anonymous US official briefed to some news outlets at the weekend that Trump made clear he was against such a move.<\/p>\n Iranian ballistic missiles hit buildings in Tel Aviv<\/p>\n One of the big political factors playing on Trump\u2019s mind is his domestic support.<\/p>\n Most Republicans in Congress still staunchly back Israel, including continued American arms supplies to the country. Many have vocally backed Israel\u2019s attacks on Iran.<\/p>\n But there are key voices within Trump\u2019s Make America Great Again (Maga) movement who now outright reject this traditional \u201cironclad\u201d support for Israel.<\/p>\n Over the last few days they\u2019ve asked why the US is risking being drawn into a Middle East war given Trump\u2019s \u201cAmerica First\u201d foreign policy promise.<\/p>\n The pro-Trump journalist Tucker Carlson\u00a0wrote a stinging criticism<\/a>\u00a0on Friday saying the administration\u2019s claims not to be involved weren\u2019t true, and that the US should \u201cdrop Israel\u201d.<\/p>\n He suggested Mr Netanyahu \u201cand his war-hungry government\u201d were acting in a way that would drag in US troops to fight on his behalf.<\/p>\n Carlson wrote: \u201cEngaging in it would be a middle finger in the faces of the millions of voters who cast their ballots in hopes of creating a government that would finally put the United States first.\u201d<\/p>\n Similarly, the staunch Trump loyalist US representative Marjorie Taylor Greene\u00a0posted on X<\/a>\u00a0that: \u201cAnyone slobbering for the US to become fully involved in the Israel\/Iran war is not America First\/MAGA\u201d<\/p>\n This represents a considerable vulnerability for Trump.<\/p>\n It adds pressure on him to put distance between the US and Israel\u2019s offensive and there are signs, in public at least, that he has responded.<\/p>\n The Maga debate over the weekend coincided with him posting on social media that he joined Russia\u2019s president Putin in calling for an end to the war. By Sunday he said Iran and Israel should make a deal, adding: \u201cThe US had nothing to do with the attack on Iran\u201d.<\/p>\n Satellite images show damage to Iran missile sites<\/a><\/p>\n2. The middle ground \u2013 holding the course<\/h2>\n
3. Listening to the Maga voices and pulling back<\/h2>\n