After outfoxing Egypt on the diplomatic stage for more than a decade, Ethiopia is set to officially inaugurate one of the world\u2019s biggest dams on a tributary of the River Nile, burying a colonial-era treaty that saw the UK guarantee the North African nation the lion\u2019s share of its water.<\/p>\n
The dam \u2013 built on the Blue Nile at a cost of about $5bn (\u00a33.7bn), with a reservoir roughly the size of Greater London \u2013 has led to a surge in Ethiopian nationalism, uniting a nation often polarised along ethnic lines and mired in conflict.<\/p>\n
\u201cEthiopians may disagree on how to eat injera [their staple food], but they agree on the dam,\u201d Moses Chrispus Okello, an analyst with the South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies think-tank, told the BBC.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey do not see it as a pile of concrete in the middle of a river, but as a monument of their achievement because Ethiopians, both at home and in the diaspora, funded the dam\u2019s construction. There were waves and waves of appeals for contributions when construction started in 2011.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe government also issued bonds that were bought by companies and workers. So, the sense that all Ethiopians own the dam has grown exponentially, and its inauguration is a source of great pride for the nation,\u201d Mr Okello said.<\/p>\n
Named the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd), it is Africa\u2019s largest hydro-electric plant, raising hopes that not only will it meet the 135 million-strong population\u2019s energy needs but it will also give the country \u201cenergy hegemony\u201d and boost its foreign currency earnings, the analyst added.<\/p>\n
Ethiopia was planning to increase the sale of electricity to neighbouring countries such as Kenya and Djibouti, with ambitions of building a transmission network to cross the Red Sea to sell to Middle Eastern states like Saudi Arabia, he said.<\/p>\n
But for Egypt, the dam represents the opposite of Ethiopia\u2019s hopes and ambitions.<\/p>\n
It fears that dam could sharply reduce the flow of water to the country, causing water shortages.<\/p>\n
\u201cAbout 93% of Egypt is desert, with almost no people. All of us, 107 million people, live on the Nile,\u201d a geologist at Egypt\u2019s Cairo University, Prof Abbas Sharaky, told the BBC.<\/p>\n
\u201cEgyptian civilisation was built on the Nile. The Nile is our life,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
The academic warns that \u201cpoverty of water\u201d could worsen in Egypt because of the dam.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is storing 64 billion cubic metres, from water which usually flows to Egypt. This is a very big loss for us. Our average annual share is 55.5 billion cubic metres. We do not have any other source of water, but the Nile,\u201d Prof Sharaky said.<\/p>\n
He added that the Gerd stores \u201cabout double the amount of water in the Three Gorges Dam in China, which is the biggest dam in the world in generating electricity\u201d.<\/p>\n
A former negotiator for Ethiopia over the Gerd, Fekahmed Negash, told the BBC that despite enormous diplomatic pressure and even threats of war from Egypt, Ethiopia had stuck with its plan to build the dam because it was vital to its developmental needs.<\/p>\n
This includes providing electricity to the estimated 60% of Ethiopians who do not have access to it, however he noted that this would not be easy as a transmission network would have to be built across the vast country with rocky and mountainous terrain.<\/p>\n
Prof Sharaky said that despite the Blue Nile being an \u201cinternational river\u201d, Ethiopia took a \u201cunilateral\u201d decision to build the dam \u2013 something it succeeded in doing only because Egypt was hit by a revolution at the time, leading to the overthrow of long-serving ruler Hosni Mubarak.<\/p>\n
\u201cEgypt was in a very bad situation, without a president, and our military was busy inside the country,\u201d he said, adding that the North African state had now taken steps to find alternative sources of water \u2013 including building the world\u2019s largest water treatment plant, and drilling more than 5,000 wells.<\/p>\n
Egypt had also been forced to make changes to its agriculture sector \u2013 for instance, by reducing the area for rice cultivation, which is water-intensive, from around two million acres to one million acres, the academic said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you store 64 billion cubic metres of water that used to flow to Egypt, is it not going to cause harm?\u201d Prof Sharaky noted, dismissing Ethiopia\u2019s claims that the North African country would not be negatively affected by the dam.<\/p>\n
Mr Fekahmed told the BBC that Ethiopia would not return to the era when Egypt was guaranteed a specific amount of water, but it was \u201calways open to talks regarding the release of water and the safety of the dam\u201d.<\/p>\n
Rashid Abdi, an analyst at the Kenya-based Sahan Research think-tank, said the Gerd\u2019s completion heralded the end of the deal Britain \u2013 the then colonial power \u2013 had made in the 1920s to guarantee Egypt around 80% of the Nile\u2019s waters.<\/p>\n
\u201cBritain did it to placate Egypt, and to secure its own interests because Egypt is a strategic state that controls the Suez Canal, the gateway to Europe,\u201d Mr Abdi told the BBC.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut Ethiopia is now projecting power, while Egypt\u2019s fortunes have declined. It has lost its privileged status over the Nile,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
In what Mr Okello described as a \u201cpolitical masterstroke\u201d, Ethiopia\u2019s then-Prime Minister Meles Zenawi announced in 2011 plans to build what he simply called \u201cProject X\u201d, setting in motion a process that has led to Egypt losing its \u201cveto power\u201d over the use of the Nile\u2019s waters.<\/p>\n
\u201cEgypt lobbied massively for institutions like the World Bank not to finance the dam\u2019s construction. This merely strengthened the Ethiopian government\u2019s resolve, and it embarked on the big drive to raise funds from its citizens,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo Ethiopia got money from various domestic sources, and also a small contribution from Igad [East Africa\u2019s regional bloc, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development]. If it got money from other sources as well, then this is not talked about loudly,\u201d Mr Okello added.<\/p>\n
US President Donald Trump has claimed that the US \u201cstupidly funded\u201d the dam\u2019s construction, and it \u201csubstantially\u201d reduces the water flowing into the River Nile, echoing the concern of Egypt \u2013 a strong US ally.<\/p>\n
Ethiopia dismissed his claim as \u201cfalse\u201d, insisting that the dam was self-financed.<\/p>\n
Mr Okello said Trump had tried to broker a deal over the dam during his first term, but Ethiopia \u2013 under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who had won the Nobel Peace Prize for ending hostilities with Eritrea \u2013 walked away as it felt the US president was siding with Egypt.<\/p>\n
\u201cTrump felt slighted. He had wanted the Nobel Peace Prize, but not only did Abiy get it, he didn\u2019t give Trump a deal either,\u201d Mr Okello said.<\/p>\n
Ahead of the Gerd\u2019s inauguration on Tuesday, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty stepped up his government\u2019s rhetoric against the dam, saying that water security was a \u201cred line\u201d and the dam posed an \u201cexistential threat\u201d to the North African state.<\/p>\n
However, Prof Sharaky ruled out the possibility of Egypt going to war with Ethiopia.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey are our brothers. We drink from the same water. The Nile is coming from them,\u201d he said, adding that Egypt would keep trying to resolve the dispute through negotiations.<\/p>\n
Mr Fekahmed said Egypt could not resort to bombing the Gerd as it would be \u201csuicidal\u201d for the country \u2013 as well as Sudan, which borders Ethiopia \u2013 because all the dam\u2019s water would gush out and \u201cdevastate\u201d the two countries.<\/p>\n
The Egyptian geologist expressed the fear that Ethiopia could use the dam to exert \u201cmilitary power\u201d, especially over Sudan \u2013 a strategically important ally for Egypt \u2013 as the Blue Nile and White Nile meet in Khartoum.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf there is tension or conflict between Ethiopia and Sudan, Ethiopia could destroy Sudan through this dam, without weapons or planes,\u201d Prof Sharaky said.<\/p>\n
He also raised a concern that the Gerd could start a \u201cnew system of earthquakes\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you store 64 billion cubic metres of water, it means 64 billion tonnes of weight in an area with volcanic rocks, a lot of fractures, and the world\u2019s biggest rift, the East African rift, which is an active rift,\u201d Prof Sharaky said.<\/p>\n
Ethiopia has previously said that studies showed that Egypt\u2019s concerns are unfounded, and the dam is far from areas prone to earthquakes.<\/p>\n
So Ethiopians are unlikely to let Egypt dampen their mood as they prepare to celebrate the dam\u2019s inauguration and focus on their next goal \u2013 to regain access to the Red Sea, which Ethiopia lost when Eritrea gained independence in 1991.<\/p>\n
Last week, the Ethiopian prime minister said that giving up the Red Sea was a \u201cmistake that will be corrected tomorrow\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe issue of a seaport is no longer something to be ashamed of. The global perspective is clear \u2013 there is no large country without port access, and this should be approached through negotiation,\u201d Abiy added.<\/p>\n
Eritrea dismissed his comments as \u201creckless sabre-rattling\u201d, amid fears that relations between the two nations \u2013 who fought a border war that killed tens of thousand of people in the late 1990s \u2013 were once again deteriorating.<\/p>\n
Mr Okello said the nationalist fervour among Ethiopians over the dam is starting to be seen in the Red Sea campaign.<\/p>\n
\u201cEthiopia built the dam, despite the odds,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt now wants to gain access to the sea, and build a naval force. It\u2019s not clear how it will do this, but Ethiopia sees itself as a great nation, and there aren\u2019t many great nations that are landlocked.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
After outfoxing Egypt on the diplomatic stage for more than a decade, Ethiopia is set to officially inaugurate one of the world\u2019s biggest dams on a tributary of the River Nile, burying a colonial-era treaty that saw the UK guarantee the North African nation the lion\u2019s share of its water. The dam \u2013 built on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-121013","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","entry"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121013","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121013"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121013\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121013"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=121013"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=121013"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}