Africa could double its current growth rate for the next 40 years by drawing on China\u2019s development strategy, which offers the strongest \u201cproof of concept\u201d for sustained high growth, economist Jeffrey Sachs said in a lecture on Thursday.<\/p>\n
With Africa projected to account for 25 percent of the world\u2019s population by 2050 and 35 percent by 2100, the continent\u2019s future will hinge on urgent and large-scale investment in education, including universal digital access for students, Sachs said at a discussion called \u201cThe Future of Global Growth: Prof Jeffrey Sachs on Geopolitics and Fragmentation\u201d, held at the Gordon Institute of Business Science under the University of Pretoria in Johannesburg, South Africa.<\/p>\n
\u201cMy view is that the next 40 years should be a period of 8 to 10 percent per year growth in Africa \u2014 roughly twice the current rate \u2014 and that this is feasible, and that China is the proof of concept and the best role model as well for how to get this done,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s growth shows rapid late development at scale is possible, he said, noting that \u201c1.4 billion people became part of a high-income, technologically dynamic rival \u2026within a 40-year period\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat China has done is show how to plan, how to think forward, how to implement long-term infrastructure strategies, how to dramatically raise the human capital in the population over two generations to make the cutting-edge, high-tech country right now leading in most areas,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Sachs pointed to global innovation rankings to underscore China\u2019s rise, suggesting that the end goal of an African development model is not just industrial catch-up or the replication of old industrialization models, but to leapfrog into knowledge-based growth.<\/p>\n
In the Global Innovation Index 2025 released in September, the World Intellectual Property Organization lists Southern China\u2019s Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou as the world\u2019s top innovation cluster, ahead of Tokyo-Yokohama at No 2 and Silicon Valley at No 3, with Beijing and Seoul rounding out the top five.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo this is an Asian phenomenon \u2014 very successful,\u201d Sachs said. \u201cBut China figured out how to do that. Africa needs to do this in the next 40 years.\u201d<\/p>\n
Africa\u2019s demographic surge means the continent could become one of the world\u2019s central economic actors if governments act quickly to convert population growth into human capital, he said.<\/p>\n
With a population approaching 1.5 billion, Africa has the scale of a \u201cmega population\u201d comparable to China and India, he said, adding that the African Continental Free Trade Area provides the \u201cgains of scale\u201d needed to build a large integrated market.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou will be much bigger than China and India soon enough. But 1.5 billion people \u2014 that\u2019s a big market to work for.\u201d<\/p>\n
Analysts say such scale is critical for developing competitive industries and future innovation hubs \u2014 an outcome Sachs said would depend on Africa\u2019s ability to educate and skill its fast-growing population.<\/p>\n
In the discussion, Sachs said the widely used term \u201cdemographic dividend\u201d is misleading.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s not true stated that way,\u201d he said. \u201cWhat will make this a demographic dividend is if that is a highly educated young population. Otherwise, it will be a huge burden for young people, for society and for the world.\u201d<\/p>\n
Education at scale<\/strong><\/p>\n Africa\u2019s most urgent priority is education at scale, Sachs said.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat is needed above all is investment in education \u2014 not next year, not 10 years, not 20 years, but now.\u201d<\/p>\n Every child must be in school \u201conline, with a device\u201d, prepared to participate fully in digital learning and the modern economy, and able to complete at least upper secondary education, Sachs said.<\/p>\n He urged African institutions to build the entrepreneurial and managerial capacity needed for rapid growth, saying universities must \u201cpropel this unprecedented scaling-up of quality education, knowledge and technology across the continent\u201d.<\/p>\n The International Monetary Fund predicted in its latest World Economic Outlook last month that economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa would hold steady at 4.1 percent this year, with a modest pickup to 4.4 percent next year.<\/p>\n Such steadiness reflects years of important reform efforts across key economies, it said.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Africa could double its current growth rate for the next 40 years by drawing on China\u2019s development strategy, which offers the strongest \u201cproof of concept\u201d for sustained high growth, economist Jeffrey Sachs said in a lecture on Thursday. With Africa projected to account for 25 percent of the world\u2019s population by 2050 and 35 percent […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-125485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","entry"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125485","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=125485"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125485\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=125485"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=125485"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=125485"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}