NAIROBI, Kenya Dec 23 \u2013 The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is grappling with internal divisions and an uncertain political future following the death of its long-serving leader, Raila Odinga, according to a new national survey by TIFA Research.<\/p>\n
Findings released on Tuesday by TIFA Research depict a party at a strategic crossroads, struggling to define its identity in the post-Raila era amid its uneasy cooperation with President William Ruto\u2019s Broad-Based Government.<\/p>\n
The poll suggests that while ODM remains single most popular party, its internal cohesion has weakened, exposing sharp disagreements between its leadership and grassroots supporters over the party\u2019s direction ahead of the 2027 General Election.<\/p>\n
According to the survey, ODM\u2019s national popularity has risen to 20 per cent, overtaking President Ruto\u2019s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), which stands at 16 per cent.<\/p>\n
Indication show, that the surge may be driven largely by post-Raila sympathy rather than genuine endorsement of the party\u2019s current political posture.<\/p>\n
Despite ODM leaders\u2019 engagement with the Kenya Kwanza administration, expectations among the public and within the party remain divided. Half of all respondents expect ODM to return to the opposition by 2027, while 38 per cent believe it will remain part of the Broad Based Government.<\/p>\n
Among ODM supporters themselves, the split is equally stark, highlighting \u00a0the party\u2019s internal dilemma.<\/p>\n
The survey points to strong resistance within ODM\u2019s base to any formal endorsement of President Ruto in 2027. Only 19 per cent of ODM supporters say they would want the party to back Ruto for a second term, even if he were to join the party.<\/p>\n
Instead, a plurality of 34 per cent prefer ODM to field its own presidential candidate, while 20 per cent favour supporting another candidate from the broader Azimio-opposition formation.<\/p>\n
These findings highlight a widening gap between ODM\u2019s top leadership, which has embraced cooperation with the government, and grassroots supporters who remain wary of aligning too closely with President Ruto.<\/p>\n
The poll also reveals that the party\u2019s divisions extend to its highest decision-making levels and into the Odinga family itself.<\/p>\n
TIFA notes emerging disquiet following the informal elevation of Raila Odinga\u2019s elder brother, Oburu Odinga, as the party\u2019s political anchor.<\/p>\n
Oburu has publicly signalled support for continued engagement with the Broad Based Government , a position that has drawn criticism from within the party. Raila\u2019s daughter, Winnie Odinga, has suggested a different political path, fuelling perceptions of internal discord.<\/p>\n
\u201cLesser ODM leaders have challenged Oburu\u2019s pronouncement, claiming that only the party\u2019s National Delegates\u2019 Conference can make such a decision,\u201d the TIFA report stated.<\/p>\n
Complicating ODM\u2019s calculations is a notable decline in the traditional ethnic and personality-based loyalty that long underpinned the party\u2019s strength.<\/p>\n
The survey shows that the proportion of Luo respondents who say they look to a specific community leader for political direction has fallen sharply from 63 per cent to 47 per cent since Raila\u2019s death.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn Raila\u2019s \u2018absence,\u2019 both ODM leaders and followers will be freer to \u2018make up their own minds\u2019 about what party, coalition, or presidential candidate to support,\u201d the poll stated.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NAIROBI, Kenya Dec 23 \u2013 The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is grappling with internal divisions and an uncertain political future following the death of its long-serving leader, Raila Odinga, according to a new national survey by TIFA Research. Findings released on Tuesday by TIFA Research depict a party at a strategic crossroads, struggling to define […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-127228","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","entry"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127228","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=127228"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127228\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=127228"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=127228"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=127228"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}