Amid increasing\u00a0polarisation,\u00a0disinformation\u00a0and\u00a0economic anxieties, the health of representative democracies will be tested in elections across all continents in 2026.<\/p>\n
There are four pivotal elections that will either reinforce democratic norms or risk further eroding confidence in free and fair processes.<\/p>\n
Scheduled for November 3, the US midterm elections will see all 435 seats in the House of Representatives up for grabs, as well as a third of the 100 Senate seats.<\/p>\n
Historically, the party controlling the White House tends to\u00a0lose ground in the midterms. This makes the 2026 elections a high-stakes moment for President Donald Trump.\u00a0Current polling\u00a0indicates the Republicans could lose control of the House and see their Senate majority\u00a0winnowed down\u00a0to two or three seats.<\/p>\n
Trump has taken advantage of a pliant Congress to pass his legislation (such as the \u201cbig, beautiful bill\u201d), get his judicial appointments\u00a0approved\u00a0and escape the\u00a0usual oversight\u00a0of his executive branch.<\/p>\n
So, if Trump loses one or both chambers, it will likely lead to legislative gridlock. And, if the\u00a0first Trump administration\u00a0serves as an example, a Democrat-controlled House could mean trouble for the president.<\/p>\n
More crucially, the 2026 midterms will be a test of the US democratic spirit two years into Trump\u2019s second term. With persistent concerns over\u00a0electoral integrity and democratic backsliding, the midterms will determine whether the Democrats in Congress have the ability to finally hold Trump to account.<\/p>\n
Brazilians will go to the polls on October 4 to elect a new president, the National Congress, and state governors and legislators. The 79-year-old incumbent president, Luis In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva, is seeking an unprecedented\u00a0fourth term.<\/p>\n
Lula has had a topsy-turvy political career thus far. In 2017, he was\u00a0convicted\u00a0of corruption and money laundering and began serving a 12-year sentence. This disqualified him from running in the 2018 general election.<\/p>\n
Lula was freed in 2019 and his conviction was\u00a0nullified\u00a0two years later, paving the way for him to return to office in a\u00a0narrow win\u00a0over then-incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.<\/p>\n
Lula\u2019s third term in office started with a\u00a0failed coup\u00a0in early 2023 orchestrated by Bolsonaro and his allies. Bolsonaro has now been\u00a0sentenced to 27 years in jail\u00a0for his role in the attempted coup.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Lula has had mixed reviews from voters, with\u00a0recent polling\u00a0showing just a third of Brazilians think he has done an excellent job and a third believe he\u2019s been poor. The rest are in the middle.<\/p>\n
With Jair Bolsonaro\u2019s eldest son, Flavio,\u00a0confirming his intention\u00a0to run, the election will be a test of whether\u00a0Bolsonarismo<\/em>\u00a0\u2013 Jair\u2019s right-wing political movement \u2013 can survive under a new leader.<\/p>\n The election will also determine if Brazil can move beyond its recent history of polarisation and instability and safeguard its democracy.<\/p>\n Bolsonaro supporters protesting Lula\u2019s election victory in 2022.\u00a0Joedson Alves\/EPA<\/p>\n Bangladesh\u2019s February general election offers something the country has not seen in more than 15 years: a genuine opportunity for citizens \u2013 especially young people \u2013 to participate in a free, fair and competitive vote.<\/p>\n For the Gen Z activists who\u00a0helped oust\u00a0Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina\u2019s\u00a0autocratic government\u00a0in 2024, this moment is consequential.<\/p>\n After the student uprising toppled Hasina, the power vacuum was filled with an interim government led by Nobel Peace Prizer winner Muhammad Yunus. It was tasked with repairing the institutions that had been hollowed out by one-party rule.<\/p>\n Young activists protest against Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024.\u00a0Rajib Dhar\/AP<\/p>\n More than a year on, the administration has\u00a0tried to restore\u00a0the independence of the judiciary, election commission and media \u2013 essential foundations for any credible transition of power.<\/p>\n Youth leaders are now trying to use this momentum to enter the political system through their new\u00a0National Citizens Party\u00a0(NCP). However, they remain\u00a0wary of reforms\u00a0without firm legal guarantees.<\/p>\n Their emergence on the political scene signals a remarkable bottom-up transition in a country where\u00a0nearly 40 per cent\u00a0of the population is under 18.<\/p>\n What happens in February will reverberate beyond Dhaka. A credible vote could anchor democratic norms and regional stability in South Asia. A compromised one risks squandering the youth-driven revival that made this election possible.<\/p>\n The Quebec general election, scheduled for October 5, presents a different kind of democratic challenge. This election will be rooted in identity and the ongoing question of national belonging within the Canadian federation.<\/p>\n This contest comes on the heels of the incumbent government\u2019s controversial new laws\u00a0mandating the use of the French language\u00a0and\u00a0expanding state secularism.<\/p>\n These issues will inevitably dominate the campaign and bring with it existential questions related to Quebec\u2019s sovereignty.<\/p>\n The 2026 election is poised to be a battle for the hearts of Francophone voters, particularly between the governing centre-right Coalition Avenir Qu\u00e9bec, the Liberal Party of Quebec and the resurgent Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois (PQ).<\/p>\n A Parti Quebecois supporter reacts to the party\u2019s bruising election defeat in 2014.\u00a0Ryan Remiorz\/Canadian Press\/AP<\/p>\n The PQ, which is\u00a0currently leading in opinion polls, is openly\u00a0committed to holding a third independence referendum.<\/p>\n While support for independence\u00a0may not yet be at a majority level, a strong mandate for the PQ could reignite the sovereignty debate. This would bring significant constitutional tensions within Canada \u2013 and could very well shape the future of the country.<\/p>\n Jean-Nicolas Bordeleau<\/a>Research Fellow, Jeff Bleich Centre for Democracy and Disruptive Technologies, Flinders University<\/p>\n3. Bangladesh: a major opportunity for Gen Z<\/h2>\n
4. Quebec: renewed push for independence?<\/h2>\n
Authors<\/h3>\n