{"id":128908,"date":"2026-01-18T10:02:46","date_gmt":"2026-01-18T10:02:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/raila-cannot-be-cloned-ahmednassir-declares-odm-politically-dead\/"},"modified":"2026-01-18T10:02:46","modified_gmt":"2026-01-18T10:02:46","slug":"raila-cannot-be-cloned-ahmednassir-declares-odm-politically-dead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/raila-cannot-be-cloned-ahmednassir-declares-odm-politically-dead\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Raila cannot be cloned\u2019: Ahmednassir declares ODM politically dead"},"content":{"rendered":"

NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan 18 \u2014 Senior Counsel Ahmednassir Abdullahi has launched a scathing critique of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), declaring the party politically \u201cdead\u201d following the death of its founder Raila Odinga.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The outspoken lawyer dismissed efforts interim party leader Oburu Odinga\u2019s to project ODM as a viable national force as futile.<\/p>\n

In a hard-hitting political commentary, Ahmednassir described Raila as the most consequential politician in Kenya over the past three decades, crediting him with building ODM into a dominant political machine and serving as the country\u2019s \u201ccentre of gravity\u201d for years.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe built a political behemoth called ODM. He lost every presidential election he participated in but won in every post-presidential election realignment. For three decades, Raila was Kenya\u2019s political centre of gravity,\u201d Ahmednassir said.<\/p>\n

\u201cNothing moved without his nod or wink.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said Raila also \u201cran the biggest political laboratory in Kenya\u201d and created many \u201ctest-tube politicians.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, Ahmednassir argued that Raila\u2019s political genius, networks, resources and charisma were personal and non-transferable, insisting that ODM cannot survive without him.<\/p>\n

\u201cRaila cannot be cloned. His political infrastructure can\u2019t be inherited either. Not by his brother [and] not by his widow. Not by his daughters. Only self-made politicians thrive in Kenya\u2019s politics,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u2018Fool\u2019s errand\u2019<\/h2>\n

He warned that endless nostalgia, rallies invoking Raila\u2019s \u201clast wishes,\u201d and attempts to manufacture continuity from his legacy were \u201ca fool\u2019s errand,\u201d arguing that political parties built around towering founders rarely survive their demise.<\/p>\n

According to him, while ODM\u2019s collapse is inevitable, its decline can \u2014 and must \u2014 be managed.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is very childish for any politician worth his salt to think that ODM will survive his demise. ODM\u2019s demise can, however, be managed,\u201d he said, singling out Oburu Odinga as ill-equipped to fill the vacuum left by his younger brother.<\/p>\n

\u201cDr Oburu shares only a surname with Raila. Nothing else.\u201d<\/p>\n

He was equally dismissive of other senior ODM figures, saying Siaya Governor James Orengo has \u201cwilted with unfulfilled political ambitions,\u201d while Nairobi politician Babu Owino, though promising, is \u201cnot ready yet.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ahmednassir argued that ODM lacks a credible Luo heir to Raila\u2019s political throne.<\/p>\n

\u2018Obliterated\u2019 in Nairobi<\/h2>\n

Beyond Luo Nyanza, he portrayed ODM leaders as \u201cpolitical midgets\u201d driven by narrow ambitions of re-election or access to state power.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead to the 2027 General Election, Ahmednassir predicted that ODM would be \u201cobliterated\u201d in Nairobi, where he foresees a gladiatorial contest between former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Babu Owino, with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka playing a watchful role.<\/p>\n

For ODM to survive in the capital, he said, it would have to \u201csurrender to Babu Owino on his terms.\u201d<\/p>\n

He also forecast a fragmented future for ODM at the Coast, saying Kilifi would fall under National Assembly Speaker Amason Kingi, Kwale under Cabinet Secretary Salim Mvurya and Governor Fatuma Achani, and Mombasa under Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho as \u201cfirst among equals.\u201d<\/p>\n

Drawing a dramatic historical analogy, Ahmednassir likened ODM\u2019s future strategy to \u201cNapoleon\u2019s or Hitler\u2019s infamous retreat from Moscow,\u201d urging the party to evacuate Nairobi, the Coast and Northern Kenya and concentrate solely on Luo Nyanza.<\/p>\n

\u201cOburu will succeed beyond his wildest dreams if he wins everything in Luo Nyanza,\u201d he said. \u201cAny seat outside Luo Nyanza is a bonus to be kissed and adored.\u201d<\/p>\n

Tough negotiations <\/h2>\n

The remarks stand in sharp contrast to Oburu Odinga\u2019s recent statements, in which he vowed to lead \u201cvery tough negotiations\u201d with President William Ruto\u2019s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), insisting that ODM remains the country\u2019s biggest party and \u201ccannot be given peanuts.\u201d<\/p>\n

Speaking at a delegates\u2019 meeting in Busia County, Oburu said ODM\u2019s grassroots strength and national reach give it leverage ahead of the 2027 elections, and defended the party\u2019s participation in the broad-based government as a move taken in the national interest.<\/p>\n

\u201cOnce a party is built from the grassroots to the polling station, it cannot collapse simply because the founder has moved on,\u201d Oburu said.<\/p>\n

But Ahmednassir dismissed such assertions as denial, arguing that without Raila, ODM lacks the leadership, cohesion and national appeal needed to remain competitive.<\/p>\n

\u201cODM has no Raila to run a national party,\u201d he said. \u201cOburu should focus on protecting Luo Nyanza and accept the reality that Raila\u2019s ODM is dead.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan 18 \u2014 Senior Counsel Ahmednassir Abdullahi has launched a scathing critique of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), declaring the party politically \u201cdead\u201d following the death of its founder Raila Odinga. The outspoken lawyer dismissed efforts interim party leader Oburu Odinga\u2019s to project ODM as a viable national force as futile. In a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-128908","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","entry"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128908","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=128908"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128908\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=128908"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=128908"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=128908"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}