As the ODM National Delegates Convention (NDC) approaches, one thing is becoming unmistakably clear: Oburu Odinga has steadied a potentially volatile political moment.<\/p>\n
While opinion is divided, especially on the manner in which he ascended to the helm given the presence of deputy party leaders, he has nonetheless imposed a form of order on what could easily have descended into factional chaos. It would have been far more chaotic had one of the deputy party leaders taken over \u2014 not because any of them lacks the capacity to lead, but because it would have triggered the politics of \u201cwhy him and not me\u201d among the three deputies.<\/p>\n
Critics often misunderstand the architecture of party politics \u2014 not just within ODM, but across many Kenyan political formations. Deputy party leadership has never been a straightforward succession pipeline. It is, instead, a mechanism of regional balancing \u2014 a political instrument designed to hold together a diversity of interests rather than to elevate technocratic or purely political competence. In that context, Oburu\u2019s elevation appears less an anomaly and more a pragmatic intervention to avoid destructive competition at a delicate moment.<\/p>\n
The real business of the NDC, however, will not dwell on internal procedural disputes. ODM\u2019s strategic horizon lies far beyond party offices; it is firmly fixed on state power. Beneath the surface unity lies a shared understanding within the party\u2019s rank and file: any engagement with President William Ruto must begin from a position of maximum leverage.<\/p>\n
Negotiation in Kenyan politics is not an exercise in modesty \u2014 it is an assertion of strength. While it is increasingly evident that ODM is inching toward alignment with Ruto\u2019s re-election calculus, it is equally clear that many within its ranks are eyeing the Deputy President\u2019s position.<\/p>\n
But such alignment will not come cheaply. One hopes that dissatisfaction with transactional politics \u2014 the routine distribution of positions for their own sake \u2014 will give way to a more progressive discourse, one framed around development equity and national economic redistribution. This would signal a shift from the crude politics of cabinet slots to a more structural and policy-driven bargaining framework.<\/p>\n
Even within this reframing, however, the office of Deputy President remains central. It is not merely a position \u2014 it is a signal of power-sharing and a guarantor of political relevance. This is where the political calculus becomes more complex.<\/p>\n
Prof Kithure Kindiki, the current Deputy President, appears to enjoy the President\u2019s backing. Dislodging him would require not just political pressure, but a compelling strategic rationale. Yet Kenyan politics is rarely linear. What appears as consolidation today can just as easily be interpreted as positioning \u2014 a \u201ccarrot\u201d held in reserve for broader coalition realignment.<\/p>\n
Crucially, President Ruto\u2019s path to a second term is far from assured, with or without ODM\u2019s electoral machinery. Even with Kindiki in place, the arithmetic does not point to an easy victory, particularly given the political capital Riggy G retains and is likely to consolidate. The alternative \u2014 reconciliation with Rigathi Gachagua \u2014 appears practically impossible, given the depth of public acrimony and the extent to which both sides have entrenched their positions.<\/p>\n
In that context, ODM\u2019s leverage is not speculative \u2014 it is structural. It is indispensable.<\/p>\n
The NDC, therefore, is likely to do more than affirm leadership. It will quietly shape the party\u2019s negotiating team and, by extension, its bargaining chips. If the Deputy President\u2019s position is indeed on the table, attention inevitably shifts to the next generation of ODM leadership.<\/p>\n
Gladys Wanga stands out as a formidable political actor. As governor and party chair, she embodies grassroots mobilisation, combativeness, and an ability to command political space. Junet Mohamed represents a different but equally potent archetype \u2014 charismatic, combative, and deeply embedded in the tactical core of ODM\u2019s political machinery. Both are products of Raila Odinga\u2019s political mentorship and carry the instincts of retail politics that define electoral success in Kenya.<\/p>\n
Yet the Deputy Presidency is not merely an extension of political theatre. It demands substantive capacity, particularly in a moment defined by economic fragility. This is where technocratic competence becomes indispensable.<\/p>\n
Figures such as Ali Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya and John Mbadi, now serving as Cabinet Secretaries, represent more than political actors \u2014 they reflect a transition into governance anchored in both political experience and administrative responsibility. Mbadi, in particular, whose trajectory from Minority Leader to the Treasury reflects both trust and expertise, represents the kind of politician refined into a technocrat capable of complementing Ruto\u2019s political agility.<\/p>\n
In an economy under strain, the presidency will require a deputy whose competence is grounded in business, finance or economic management \u2014 a stabilising, policy-driven figure capable of advancing government priorities with clarity and authority. Among ODM\u2019s current crop, only a few have demonstrated the depth of subject-matter expertise required to anchor the economic side of the political equation.<\/p>\n
ODM, therefore, faces a dual imperative: to secure political power while ensuring that such power is underwritten by governance credibility. The party\u2019s recent contribution to government \u2014 particularly through technocrats it has seconded \u2014 suggests a bench capable of delivering both.<\/p>\n
What is at stake is not merely a coalition agreement, but the reconfiguration of Kenya\u2019s political economy.<\/p>\n
The United Democratic Alliance (UDA), and by extension the Kenya Kwanza coalition, enters this moment from a position of visible strain. ODM\u2019s decision to extend a hand at a time of national precarity may be read as statesmanship. But statesmanship does not preclude strategy. If anything, this is precisely the moment for ODM to harden its bargaining posture.<\/p>\n
In Kenyan politics, one either captures power or negotiates a meaningful share of it.<\/p>\n
The NDC may not state this explicitly, but its underlying logic will be unmistakable: this is not the time for accommodation \u2014 it is the time for leverage.<\/p>\n
UDA and the broader Kenya Kwanza establishment face a turbulent electoral cycle ahead. The opposition is resurgent, with a combative Riggy G openly challenging the President. Meanwhile, Gen Z \u2014 energised by initiatives such as the \u201cNIKO KADI\u201d voter drive \u2014 is injecting a new, unpredictable dynamic into the political landscape. While their voting patterns remain uncertain, their mobilisation alone is enough to unsettle established political actors.<\/p>\n
ODM, therefore, is not positioning itself to rescue a faltering ally \u2014 it is positioning itself to negotiate from strength.<\/p>\n
When your rival is at their weakest, you neither extend a helping hand nor go for the jugular \u2014 you negotiate.<\/p>\n
That is where ODM stands today. And in Oburu Odinga, the party may well have a steady hand \u2014 one that, despite public scepticism, is backed by experience, intellect and a deeply embedded political infrastructure that is not always visible, but is undeniably influential.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
As the ODM National Delegates Convention (NDC) approaches, one thing is becoming unmistakably clear: Oburu Odinga has steadied a potentially volatile political moment. While opinion is divided, especially on the manner in which he ascended to the helm given the presence of deputy party leaders, he has nonetheless imposed a form of order on what […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-135075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","entry"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135075","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=135075"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135075\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=135075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=135075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=135075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}