{"id":148260,"date":"2026-07-28T17:02:56","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T17:02:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/maraga-warns-of-humanitarian-crisis-if-el-nino-preparations-delay\/"},"modified":"2026-07-28T17:02:56","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T17:02:56","slug":"maraga-warns-of-humanitarian-crisis-if-el-nino-preparations-delay","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/maraga-warns-of-humanitarian-crisis-if-el-nino-preparations-delay\/","title":{"rendered":"Maraga Warns of Humanitarian Crisis if El Ni\u00f1o Preparations Delay"},"content":{"rendered":"

NAIROBI, Kenya, July 28 \u2013 United Green Movement Party leader David Maraga has accused the Kenya Kwanza administration of failing to adequately prepare for the forecast El Ni\u00f1o rains, warning that the country risks a major humanitarian and environmental crisis if urgent measures are not taken.<\/strong><\/p>\n

In a statement issued Tuesday, Maraga said the government was \u201csleepwalking\u201d Kenya into a predictable climate disaster despite repeated warnings from local, regional and international weather agencies about the likelihood of an exceptionally severe rainy season later this year.<\/p>\n

He cited forecasts by the Kenya Meteorological Department, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development\u2019s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which have warned of an intense El Ni\u00f1o event expected to affect the region from October through early next year.<\/p>\n

According to Maraga, forecasters have projected an \u201ceight-in-ten chance\u201d that the phenomenon dubbed the \u201cGodzilla El Ni\u00f1o\u201d will hit East Africa, with rainfall expected to surpass the devastating 1997 El Ni\u00f1o that caused widespread flooding, destruction of infrastructure and loss of lives across Kenya.<\/p>\n

The former Chief Justice also pointed to the United Nations\u2019 assessment placing Kenya among 22 countries facing the highest humanitarian risk from the anticipated weather event.<\/p>\n

He noted that the UN has launched a $202 million global appeal aimed at supporting 8.8 million vulnerable Kenyans expected to be affected by the looming crisis.<\/p>\n

Maraga, however, said there was little evidence that the government had put in place adequate contingency plans to cushion the country against the anticipated impacts.<\/p>\n

\u201cDespite the alarm sounded by the experts, there is no visible contingency preparation by the government to mitigate the looming disaster,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He urged the government to move with speed to implement disaster preparedness measures, including strengthening flood mitigation programmes, protecting vulnerable communities and ensuring emergency response systems are in place before the onset of the heavy rains.<\/p>\n

Climate scientists have warned county governments to prepare for the worst as Kenya braces for what could be one of the most intense El Ni\u00f1o seasons in decades, urging immediate anticipatory action to protect lives, livelihoods and infrastructure.<\/p>\n

Officials from the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) say the October-November-December (OND) short rains season is likely to be driven by a combination of a strong El Ni\u00f1o and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), conditions expected to trigger above-normal rainfall across much of the country.<\/p>\n

Speaking during a KMSA webinar on \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o 2026: Evolution, Forecast and Potential Impacts in Kenya,\u201d<\/strong> Disaster Risk Management and Anticipatory Action Expert Misiani Zachary cautioned that the rains could begin with torrential downpours, increasing the risk of widespread flash floods.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe two signals the strong El Ni\u00f1o and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole could significantly enhance rainfall, triggering an early onset of the season that may begin with torrential rains, resulting in flash floods across different parts of the country,\u201d Misiani said.<\/p>\n

He urged county governments to adopt a worst-case scenario in their preparedness plans, warning that Homa Bay, Kisumu and Nakuru counties face a heightened risk of flooding caused by backflow from major lakes.<\/p>\n

According to Misiani, Lake Victoria and Lake Naivasha are among the water bodies that could experience backflow, potentially displacing thousands of residents living in low-lying areas.<\/p>\n

The expert warned that the anticipated heavy rains could further worsen the already rising water levels in Lake Victoria, Lake Turkana and several Rift Valley lakes, including Baringo, Bogoria, Elementaita, Naivasha and Nakuru.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe rising lake levels could result in mass displacement of communities living around these water bodies,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Misiani also raised concern over the country\u2019s five major river basins\u2014Tana, Athi, Turkana, Ewaso Ng\u2019iro and the Lake Victoria Basin\u2014which are expected to receive substantial water inflows during the rainy season.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf these basins receive excess water, there is a higher likelihood of riverine flooding along the main rivers,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He added that the expected rainfall could fill major dams and reservoirs beyond capacity, forcing water releases that could inundate downstream communities.<\/p>\n

Beyond flooding, Misiani warned that the rains could damage roads and bridges, disrupt learning in schools and leave several parts of the country inaccessible.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, KMSA Deputy Director for Public Weather Services Hannah Kimani linked the below-average rainfall currently being experienced in parts of western Kenya and the North Rift to the evolving El Ni\u00f1o conditions in the Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n

She said the dry spell could negatively affect farmers who planted late despite earlier advisories issued by the meteorological agency.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is potential for crop failure in some areas, especially in the North Rift. However, farmers who acted on our forecast of an early onset of the long rains are likely to record bumper harvests and can use the current warm, dry conditions to harvest and minimise post-harvest losses,\u201d Kimani said.<\/p>\n

She cautioned that farmers who delayed planting remain at risk of significant crop losses as weather patterns continue to shift ahead of the expected El Ni\u00f1o season.<\/p>\n

The Kenya Meteorological Service has urged both national and county governments, humanitarian agencies and communities to closely monitor weather forecasts and strengthen preparedness measures to minimise the potential impact of the anticipated heavy rains.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NAIROBI, Kenya, July 28 \u2013 United Green Movement Party leader David Maraga has accused the Kenya Kwanza administration of failing to adequately prepare for the forecast El Ni\u00f1o rains, warning that the country risks a major humanitarian and environmental crisis if urgent measures are not taken. In a statement issued Tuesday, Maraga said the government […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-148260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","entry"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/148260","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=148260"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/148260\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=148260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=148260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chezaspin.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=148260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}