By Wakina Mutembei Lead Sustainability, Kenya Airways.
The regulatory environment for aviation is changing faster than at any other time in the industry’s history. Governments in Europe and North America are introducing strict carbon standards, mandating sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), expanding carbon pricing, and tightening emissions reporting.
For global airlines, compliance is no longer optional. Environmental action has become both a business requirement and a moral responsibility. But for carriers in developing regions — particularly in Africa — the challenge is sharper. They must align with global climate goals while serving markets where affordability determines whether people can fly at all. The transition is as much about equity and accessibility as it is about technology.
Aviation produces about 2–3 percent of global CO₂ emissions, nearly all from jet fuel. Any credible decarbonisation strategy must therefore focus on fuel. SAF is the most promising pathway, with the International Air Transport Association estimating it could deliver 65 percent of the reductions needed for net zero by 2050.
The obstacle is scale. Global SAF production reached just one million tonnes in 2024 and may double in 2025 — still only 0.3 percent of total jet fuel demand. Meeting the 2050 target requires a 200-fold increase. Costs remain equally daunting: SAF is priced at two to five times that of conventional fuel, a prohibitive margin for airlines operating in price-sensitive African markets.
This creates a delicate balance. On one side lies the urgency to reduce aviation’s climate footprint. On the other, the need to keep flying affordable and airlines financially viable. The danger is a two-tier system — where sustainable flying becomes a privilege of the wealthy, while students, families, and small businesses are priced out.
In Europe, air travel is often a convenience; in Africa, it is a lifeline. Aviation connects students to universities, traders to markets, patients to hospitals, and families across borders. It is also central to Africa’s economic integration. With the African Continental Free Trade Area and the Single African Air Transport Market driving growth, intra-African travel and trade will inevitably rise — and so will flight emissions.
If that growth depends solely on fossil fuels, emissions will climb steeply. But if paired with SAF production and energy-efficiency gains, it could become a story of green and inclusive growth. Europe shows that policy matters: blending mandates, subsidies, and tax incentives have given investors confidence to scale SAF production. Airports are upgrading infrastructure, airlines are signing long-term offtake agreements, and aircraft manufacturers are testing 100 percent SAF operations.
Africa need not replicate Europe’s model, but the lesson is clear — scale only happens when governments, financiers, and industry act in unison. Without coherent policy and financing frameworks, sustainability will remain stuck at pilot-project level. Yet Africa has the resources to lead: non-food crops, agricultural residues, and municipal waste offer vast potential for SAF production. Done right, this could create jobs, strengthen energy independence, and reduce costs by limiting reliance on imported fuel. Local production can turn SAF from a foreign luxury into an African-led growth sector — keeping air connectivity affordable and resilient.
African airlines are already signalling leadership. Demonstration flights under initiatives such as The Aviation Challenge prove that SAF blends can work on both regional and long-haul routes. These flights build momentum and show Africa’s capacity to contribute meaningfully to global climate action.
But SAF alone will not suffice. Africa’s strategy must include electrified short-haul aircraft, hydrogen propulsion for the medium term, and improved air traffic management for immediate efficiency gains. Combined, these measures can reduce both carbon intensity and overall energy use in aviation.
The true test of net zero will not be hitting the 2050 targets — it will be ensuring Africa is not left behind. Success must be measured not only in emissions avoided, but in keeping the skies open and affordable for all Africans. Europe shows how policy can unlock scale; Africa can prove that innovation can make sustainability inclusive. Striking the right balance between regulation, responsibility, and reality will define the future of our skies.