NAIROBI, Kenya, Aug 10— The Government has placed 18 counties on heightened alert and activated multi-agency emergency teams as Kenya prepares for a potentially strong El Niño expected to bring above-normal rainfall from October.
The Ministry of Interior and National Administration said the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority had forecast an 81 per cent chance of a strong El Niño event, with a 97 per cent probability that its effects could persist into early next year.
The warning has prompted the Government to map areas considered most vulnerable to flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks, drought, infrastructure damage and displacement as part of preparations to mitigate the anticipated impacts.
The National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) has identified counties in the Coast, Lake Basin, Rift Valley and North Eastern regions as among the areas facing the highest levels of vulnerability.
Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu have also been classified as high-risk urban centres, with authorities warning of flooding, blocked drainage systems, pressure on infrastructure and disruptions to essential services.
The Government said the risk assessment is intended to guide the deployment of emergency resources and prioritise response planning before the onset of the expected heavy rains.
Coast faces flooding and displacement risk
In the Coast region, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale have been identified as vulnerable to flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion and infrastructure damage.
The Interior Ministry warned that some communities in the region could be displaced by flooding if the anticipated rains materialise.
The risks come as coastal communities remain exposed to the combined effects of heavy rainfall, rising water levels and damage to roads and other critical infrastructure.
In the Lake Basin, Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori have been placed among the areas requiring heightened preparedness.
The Government expects the region to face flooding and landslides, alongside increased risks of disease outbreaks and displacement.
Kisumu, which has also been identified as a high-risk urban centre, could face additional pressure from flooding, blocked drainage systems and disruptions to essential services.
Rift Valley faces multiple threats
The assessment identifies Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok as vulnerable to a combination of hazards including drought, flash floods and landslides.
The Government also anticipates livestock losses and food insecurity in parts of the region, underscoring the potentially uneven effects of the El Niño event.
While El Niño is commonly associated with heavy rainfall, the Government’s risk assessment highlights that some areas could simultaneously face water and food insecurity depending on local conditions.
North Eastern brace for water shortages
In North Eastern Kenya, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera have been identified as vulnerable to drought, water scarcity, livestock losses, poor pasture and food insecurity.
The Government said the counties have been prioritised according to their vulnerability to the different risks associated with the expected weather conditions.
The list, however, is not considered final.
“More areas may be included in the plan if experts consider them vulnerable to El Nino risks,” the Ministry said.
The Government has also placed National Emergency Multi-Agency and County Emergency Response teams on high alert, with personnel being sensitised on their respective roles ahead of the anticipated weather conditions.
The preparations come as authorities seek to avoid a repeat of the widespread disruption caused by previous extreme weather events, including flooding, destruction of infrastructure, displacement of communities and disruption of essential services.