NAIROBI, Kenya Feb 17 – The aspiration of Raila Odinga, the leader of the Azimio coalition, to assume the position of the fifth Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) appears likely to bring him together with his longstanding political rival, President William Ruto.
According to political analyst Javas Bigambo, Raila’s potential elevation to the prominent continental role could mend the fractured relationship between him and President Ruto, who were once political allies but have since become adversaries.
In the fiercely contested presidential election of August 2022, Raila narrowly suffered defeat to President Ruto.
Despite the seasoned opposition leader’s allegations of electoral fraud, which he asserted even through an unsuccessful petition filed with the Supreme Court, judges upheld President Ruto’s victory.
“For Raila to make a successful bid, he needs the support of President Ruto and his government. It is therefore inevitable that the two will have to work together which means that the two leaders will eventually get into some sort of a handshake,” Bigambo told this writer during an interview.
Raila announced his candidacy for the top position at the AU on February 15, 2024, with the endorsement of former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, setting in motion Kenya’s campaign to lead the continental organization.
Bigambo stressed that President Ruto will likely play a prominent role as Raila’s chief campaigner across the continent, working to secure Kenya’s success in its bid for leadership of the AU.
“This is inevitable because President Ruto will be keen to ensure that Kenya’s bis is successful,” he said.
Although Raila is not unfamiliar with AU circles, having served as the body’s High Representative for Infrastructure from October 20, 2018, to February 23, 2023, Bigambo emphasized the critical importance of President Ruto’s government input.
– 2027 politics –
With Raila soon to be out of the political succession race for 2027, Bigambo stated that President Ruto would be eager to advocate for him to ensure a smooth defense of his seat.
If Raila succeeds, he will officially take office in February 2025 for his four-year term, by which time the Kenyan election would have concluded.
While some experts speculate that Raila might resign early from his AU position to focus on Kenyan local politics, Bigambo notes that the former Prime Minister’s political influence would be diminished once he assumes the AU role.
“The requirements needed to be a successful candidate compromises Raila presently quite thoroughly. He will need to be politically neutral,” he said.
Bigambo noted that with Raila’s exit from the political stage imminent, President Ruto “will not have a very compelling opponent in the 2027 elections”.
The Azimio coalition has officially backed Raila’s candidacy for the AU’s top position, with co-principal and Wiper Party Leader Kalonzo Musyoka affirming Raila as the ideal candidate for the role.
As the 2027 succession looms, sparking an anticipated power struggle within the opposition coalition, Kalonzo seems to be positioning himself as the viable contender to challenge President Ruto in the upcoming polls.
Nonetheless, Bigambo maintains that Kalonzo must demonstrate his capability to step into Raila’s shoes and present a formidable challenge to unseat President Ruto, who has previously downplayed the former Vice President’s candidacy as a minor obstacle.
“It is not obvious and natural that Kalonzo Musyoka will inherit Raila’s political estate,” he said.
– Azimio’s future –
Bigambo additionally expressed that with Raila’s impending departure from the local political scene, the future of Azimio appears uncertain and grim due to the ongoing simmering tensions.
“Azimio coalition will be dead upon Raila’s ascension to the AU post because there is no one in Azimio who has what it takes to hold the coalition together or even ODM together,” he said.
A section of leaders within the coalition, including Kalonzo, DAP-Kenya party leader Eugene Wamalwa, and ODM Party Deputy Leader Hassan Joho, have expressed interest in challenging President Ruto in the 2027 elections.
Bigambo believes that the probability of the leaders failing to agree on a suitable candidate to represent the Azimio coalition in 2027 is what will ultimately result in the coalition’s dissolution, which Raila has previously been able to prevent through his leadership.
“Raila singularly he is an entire opposition system and now will his exit bring out the fragmentation of opposition voices,” he said.
However, despite the uncertain future of Azimio, which could potentially benefit the Kenya Kwanza regime, Bigambo stressed the importance of President Ruto fulfilling his promises to the electorate, particularly regarding lowering the cost of living.
“Raila’s exit could be a matter of potential concern to some citizenry on who will fight for their interests like on tax issues,” he said.