NAIROBI, Kenya, June 5 – Support for the broad-based government has fallen sharply by 14 percentage points to 30 per cent, while opposition to the arrangement has surged past the halfway mark to 56 per cent, according to a TIFA poll conducted last month.
The findings signaled growing public discontent with the political pact between President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), whose leaders entered into a cooperation agreement anchored on a ten-point agenda signed in March last year.
According to the survey, nearly twice as many Kenyans oppose the broad-based government (BBG) as those who support it.
“Among all Kenyans, nearly twice as many express opposition to the BBG as compared to those who say they support it (56% vs. 30%),” TIFA said in its report.
The poll indicates a significant reversal from November last year when support for the arrangement stood at 44 per cent.
“TIFA’s last four surveys reveal that while support for the BBG is higher than it was a year ago, the increase in its support seen over the previous two surveys (from 22% to 29% and then 44%) has now dropped, nearly returning to its modest August 2025 level (30% vs. 29%),” the report states.
The proportion of those opposed to the arrangement has meanwhile increased from 48 per cent in November to 56 per cent in the latest survey.
The findings come at a time when the future of the Ruto-ODM political cooperation remains uncertain, amid growing divisions within ODM over the conditions under which the arrangement should continue.
The rising influence of the Linda Mwananchi movement, a faction led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and other ODM leaders opposed to the party’s cooperation with Kenya Kwanza, has shaped public attitudes towards the broad-based government.
The movement has attracted large crowds during nationwide rallies and built a strong following among young voters by focusing on issues such as the high cost of living, taxation, governance and accountability.
ODM Leader Oburu Oginga has previously suggested that the partnership could collapse if ODM is not allowed to nominate a deputy presidential candidate to run alongside President Ruto in the 2027 General Election.
“Oburu himself at one point declared this arrangement would end if ODM is not allowed to provide a DP running mate for Ruto in next year’s election,” TIFA noted.
Other leaders within ODM have argued that the coalition should only survive if there is meaningful progress in implementing the ten-point agenda signed by President Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga in March last year.
According to the pollster, disputes have emerged over the extent to which the agenda has been implemented and whether the Kenya Kwanza administration remains committed to its promises.
“Several others have said that it will be terminated unless sufficient progress is made in implementing the Ten-Point Agenda that was agreed between Ruto and Odinga,” the report says.
The divisions have increasingly played out in public rallies, where rival factions have exchanged accusations over the intentions behind the political arrangement.
“In the meantime, the rival factions have held frequent public rallies, often castigating their ODM counterparts by name and making conflicting claims as to what Raila’s real intentions were in fostering this arrangement,” TIFA observed.
President Ruto has also intensified political tours in regions traditionally considered ODM strongholds, including Nyanza, Western Kenya and the Coast, in an apparent effort to shore up support for the broad-based government.
“Meanwhile, the President had engaged in numerous rally tours himself, especially in areas considered ODM strongholds, such as Western, Nyanza and Coast, to drum up further support for the BBG as it is,” the report adds.
The survey further links the changing political landscape to the activities of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who has maintained a relentless campaign against the government following his impeachment and removal from office.
“Another factor at work recently are the frequent and vehement attacks on the government by former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua,” TIFA said.
The pollster noted that uncertainty surrounding Gachagua’s legal challenge against his impeachment continues to shape the country’s political environment ahead of the 2027 elections.
“More uncertainties about the contours of next year’s election are the consequence of the yet-to-be-finalized legal challenge that former DP Rigathi Gachagua has made to his impeachment and removal from office,” the report states.
Despite the court battle, Gachagua has remained politically active, particularly in the Mt Kenya region, where he has been mobilising support while positioning himself for a major role in the next election cycle.
TIFA said the findings underscore the increasingly fluid nature of Kenya’s politics as shifting alliances, internal ODM disputes and the post-Raila political transition continue to redefine the country’s electoral landscape.
“Altogether, the eventual status of the BBG remains uncertain, whether or not ODM can hold together,” the pollster stated.