NAIROBI, Kenya, Sep 24 – Kenya’s dominant political parties have lost nearly 60 percent of their support since the August 2022 General Election, with a new survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) showing a sharp rise in voters who no longer identify with any political outfit.
Immediately after the 2022 polls, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) commanded a combined support of 72 per cent—48 percent for UDA and 24 per cent for ODM.
But the latest TIFA survey shows their combined strength has plunged to just 29 per cent, with UDA now at 16 per cent and ODM at 13 per cent.
At the same time, the share of voters identifying with no party has surged dramatically.
“Forty-three percent of Kenyans identify with no party, making them the largest political bloc in the country,” TIFA noted.
The survey further highlighted that the combined support for parties aligned with the Broad-Based Government—UDA, ODM, and Ford-Kenya—stands at less than one-third of all Kenyans (30 per cent).
The findings underscore a steep erosion of party loyalty in less than three years, as many voters drift away from Kenya’s polarized political camps and toward independence.
The Democratic Congress Party (DCP), led by former Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa, emerged as the third most preferred party with 9 percent support, underscoring the growing fragmentation of Kenya’s political landscape.
Despite topping the standings, UDA’s 16 per cent support signals the ruling party’s failure to consolidate momentum since 2022.
ODM’s 13 per cent also reflects dwindling influence for Raila Odinga’s long-standing opposition vehicle.
The survey, conducted between August 23 and September 3 among 2,023 respondents across all 47 counties, paints a picture of a restless electorate, with the unaffiliated bloc now poised to play a decisive role in shaping Kenya’s next political transition.